NEW DELHI: Monthly rainfall over the country as a whole is most likely to be ‘below normal’ in Sept, the last month of the monsoon season, said IMD on Monday — an indication that the four-month rainy season is likely to end with overall deficient cumulative (June-Sept) rainfall as predicted earlier with high probability due to the impact of El Nino.The Met department said August, which reported a deficit of more than 16 percent in monthly rainfall in the country despite good rains in certain parts, was the warmest August in India since 1901, recording a mean temperature of 28.01 degrees Celsius.Region-wise, August in south Peninsular India was the second-warmest August since 1901, whereas it was the third warmest for east and northeast India, and fifth warmest for northwest India in the past 126 years.So far, the country as a whole reported a deficit of 14 percent in cumulative (June 1-Aug 31) rainfall, despite ‘normal’ rainfall in July. In June, the deficit was as high as 35 percent. Out of a total of 741 districts assessed for monsoon rainfall distribution, 312 districts (42 percent) received ‘below normal’ rainfall and 38 districts (5 percent) reported large deficient rainfall till Aug 31.A forecast of ‘below normal’ rainfall in Sept may lead to a deficit in overall kharif crop acreage. Though sowing of most of the seasonal crops is almost complete with a decline in acreage by nearly 2 percent compared to the corresponding period last year, low rainfall in Sept means an increase in the input cost due to farmers’ spending on irrigation of standing crops.“Spatially, many parts of the country are likely to receive below-normal rainfall, but some areas of northwest, northeast, east, east-central and south-east Peninsular India are likely to receive ‘normal to above-normal’ rainfall,” said IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra.He said currently “strong El Niño conditions” are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with sea surface temperature (SST) remaining above normal across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. “These conditions are expected to strengthen further in the coming months,” said Mohapatra, hinting at its negative impact on Sept rainfall.
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El Niño, characterised by the warming of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, is invariably associated with a weak monsoon and a harsh summer in India.At present, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions prevail over the Indian Ocean and the forecasts from the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System (MMCFS) indicate that neutral IOD conditions are likely to persist through Sept. It means the monsoon may not benefit from this climatic phenomenon as only positive IOD helps increase rainfall activities.IMD noted that the extreme weather events (lightning, thunderstorm and heavy rains) took 113 human lives in Aug. Mohapatra, however, said this figure can be cross-checked with the data compiled by the states.
